Social Security recipients can expect a modest cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for 2026, according to recent forecasts. Two leading analysts project increases of 2.2-2.3%, slightly lower than the 2.5% adjustment seniors received in 2025.
The Senior Citizens League estimates a 2.3% increase, while independent analyst Mary Johnson projects 2.2%. Both forecasts rely on the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), the official measure used by the Social Security Administration.
These projections reflect current inflation trends, with recent government reports showing annual increases of approximately 2.2% in the CPI-W. This represents a significant decrease from the higher inflation rates that produced larger COLAs in previous years (8.7% in 2023 and 5.9% in 2022).
Economic analysts caution that these projections could change, particularly if recently announced tariffs are implemented. Such policy changes might drive consumer prices higher, potentially resulting in a larger COLA.
The official 2026 COLA will be announced in October 2025, based on third-quarter (July-September) CPI-W data. Until then, all projections remain preliminary and subject to revision as new economic information becomes available throughout the year.