The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) has released its latest projection for the 2026 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA), estimating a 2.7% increase for next year’s benefits. This represents a slight uptick from their previous month’s forecast of 2.6% and marks a modest improvement over the 2.5% COLA implemented in 2025.
What This Means for Your Monthly Check
For the average Social Security beneficiary receiving $2,006.69 per month as of July 2025, a 2.7% COLA would translate to an additional $54.18 monthly, or approximately $650 annually. However, seniors should prepare for this increase to be significantly reduced by rising Medicare costs.
The projected Medicare Part B premium for 2026 is expected to increase by $21.50 per month—an 11.6% jump that would consume nearly 40% of the COLA benefit. This would effectively reduce the net monthly increase to just $32.68 for most Social Security recipients who have Medicare premiums automatically deducted from their benefits.
The COLA Calculation Process
The final COLA figure won’t be announced until October, but TSCL’s projection is based on inflation data from the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). The Social Security Administration uses the average CPI-W figures from July, August, and September, comparing them to the same period from the previous year to determine the adjustment.
Growing Concerns About Adequacy
Shannon Benton, TSCL’s Executive Director, notes that many seniors remain skeptical about whether COLAs adequately reflect the inflation they actually experience. TSCL research indicates that Social Security benefits have lost approximately 20% of their buying power since 2010, highlighting ongoing concerns about the adjustment’s effectiveness in protecting seniors’ financial security.
The organization advocates for alternative calculation methods, including their proposed “CPI-BEST” approach, which would guarantee a minimum 3% COLA while using inflation measures more reflective of senior spending patterns.