Good news for retirees: Social Security benefits are projected to increase by 2.5% in 2026, according to the latest forecast from The Senior Citizens League (TSCL). This represents an upward revision from their original January prediction of 2.1%.
What This Means for Your Monthly Check
If you’re receiving the average retired-worker benefit of $2,002 per month, a 2.5% cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) would boost your monthly payment to approximately $2,052. That translates to an extra $50 per month, or $600 more per year.
The Challenge: Rising Costs May Outpace Benefits
While any increase is welcome news, there’s a concerning reality behind these numbers. The COLA calculation is based on spending patterns of working-age adults, not seniors. Since retirees typically spend more on housing and medical care, and these costs are rising faster than average inflation, the 2.5% increase may not fully cover your actual cost increases.
Housing costs are climbing 3.9% annually, while medical expenses are up 2.5%—both higher than the overall inflation rate used to calculate your COLA.
Bottom Line
The 2026 COLA forecast has improved throughout 2025, suggesting Social Security recipients will see a meaningful increase. However, the adjustment may still fall short of covering the real-world price increases that most seniors face, particularly in healthcare and housing expenses.
The official 2026 COLA will be announced this October by the Social Security Administration.